Growth & Decline Curve

Principal Investigator: Terry Ring, University of Utah, John Wilkey, University of Utah

DAQ Contact: Whitney Oswald

Oil and gas production appears to be the major source of ozone precursors in the Uinta Basin. The Division of Air quality seeks to maintain the regulatory ozone limits within the basin without impeding continued development. As such, the Division of Air Quality developed a model projecting future-year emission inventories in the oil and gas sector accounting for both growth within the sector as well as production decline due to the natural lifecycle of production wells. Additionally, the model accounted for the impact of regulatory policy development on a year to year basis. For this project, researchers at the University of Utah (U of U) will improve upon the model initially developed by the Division of Air Quality by better accounting for variability in decline among wells, as well as producing more accurate month-by-month production estimates. The project will utilize a model developed at the U of U using the software R that has proven accurate for the Uinta basin, as a tool for the Division of Air Quality (DAQ).

Relevant Documentation